Driverless and Driver-assisted Cars

The mass deployment of driverless cars will transform the worldwide automotive industry on a staggering scale. A 80-90% reduction in the cost of accident-related deaths, injuries and vehicle damage will decimate the $460 billion personal car insurance market while the automotive spare parts and car repairs markets will experience major contraction. A slow but sure move away from the concept of car ownership towards a model that involves paying for transport services will mean that annual cars sales will fall. This will not just affect the leading auto makers, who will experience of period of consolidation and M&A activity, but related industries will be affected as well - such as companies who provide finance for new car purchases.

We estimate that the total economic impact of driverless car technology in the long term will be in the multi-trillion dollar class – and, once again, the cause will be digital technology.

The specific catalysts of this staggering upheaval will be (i) the maturation of machine intelligence  - which will  control cars both individually and collectively; (ii) the assembly of extensive data assets - mapping data and data harvested from sensors mounted in cars and elsewhere; (iii) the formation of connections between driverless car systems and other digital domains – for example smart homes, personal devices, entertainment services and advertising.

There are four powerful reasons why we are sure that massive change is coming: firstly, driverless cars will deliver major, incremental value benefits to practically all drivers and passengers; secondly - based on where the technology is today, its rate of improvement and its ultimate potential - it is clear that the mass adoption of driverless cars will be possible with minimal incremental cost; thirdly, rather than feelings of suspicion and mistrust the reaction of most consumers to cars that can drive themselves is one of amazement and fascination. And finally – sensing that this really is going to happen – practically every major auto maker, plus a raft of new entrants, are locked in ‘execution’ mode.

This report will take you on a guided tour of the driverless car and driver-assisted car markets. The report explains what all the major actors are doing and where they are headed while also presenting a detailed description of what the future will look like when the thought of driving a car to work will seem as strange as the thought of lighting a fire in order to cook a meal.