The mass deployment of driverless cars will transform the worldwide automotive industry on a staggering scale. A 80-90% reduction in the cost of accident-related deaths, injuries and vehicle damage will decimate the $460 billion personal car insurance market while the automotive spare parts and car repairs markets will experience major contraction. A slow but sure move away from the concept of car ownership towards a model that involves paying for transport services will mean that annual cars sales will fall. This will not just affect the leading auto makers, who will experience of period of consolidation and M&A activity, but related industries will be affected as well - such as companies who provide finance for new car purchases.
We estimate that the total economic impact of driverless car technology in the long term will be in the multi-trillion dollar class – and, once again, the cause will be digital technology.
The specific catalysts of this staggering upheaval will be (i) the maturation of machine intelligence - which will control cars both individually and collectively; (ii) the assembly of extensive data assets - mapping data and data harvested from sensors mounted in cars and elsewhere; (iii) the formation of connections between driverless car systems and other digital domains – for example smart homes, personal devices, entertainment services and advertising.
There are four powerful reasons why we are sure that massive change is coming: firstly, driverless cars will deliver major, incremental value benefits to practically all drivers and passengers; secondly - based on where the technology is today, its rate of improvement and its ultimate potential - it is clear that the mass adoption of driverless cars will be possible with minimal incremental cost; thirdly, rather than feelings of suspicion and mistrust the reaction of most consumers to cars that can drive themselves is one of amazement and fascination. And finally – sensing that this really is going to happen – practically every major auto maker, plus a raft of new entrants, are locked in ‘execution’ mode.
This report will take you on a guided tour of the driverless car and driver-assisted car markets. The report explains what all the major actors are doing and where they are headed while also presenting a detailed description of what the future will look like when the thought of driving a car to work will seem as strange as the thought of lighting a fire in order to cook a meal.
Alibaba / SAIC Motor (China) |
Apple (U.S.) |
Baidu (China) |
BMW Group (Germany) |
Daimler (Germany) |
Delphi (U.S.) |
Ford (U.S.) |
General Motors (U.S.) |
Google (U.S.) |
HERE (Germay) |
Honda (Japan) |
Hyundai (South Korea) |
Nissan (Japan) |
Nvidia (U.S.) |
Tesla (U.S.) |
Toyota (Japan) |
Uber (U.S.) |
Volkswagen (Germany) |
Volvo (Sweden) |
Figure 1 | Modified ‘fully autonomous’ Audi RS 7 at Hockenheim (full race speed) |
Figure 2 | Stanford's self-driving, electric, drifting DeLorean |
Figure 3 | Levels of Vehicle Automation |
Figure 4 | Mercedes-Benz Self-driving Car Technology – fully self-driving (supervised) drive on a 6-mile route from Mannheim to Pforzheim in Germany including town centres. |
Figure 5 | Examples of Automotive Night Vision Technology – 2010 to 2015 |
Figure 6 | BMW i3 Electric Car with Remote Parking Assist |
Figure 7 | Mercedes F015 Concept Car |
Figure 8 | Ford Fusion Hybrid Autonomous Research Vehicle |
Figure 9 | The Chevrolet-FNR Concept Car |
Figure 10 | HERE Digital Mapping Showing Road Lanes and Contours |
Figure 11 | Honda Pedestrian Sensing Technology (Top) and Lane Keeping System |
Figure 12 | Honda's Autonomous Vehicle Testing (Top) and the Honda Wander Concept Model |
Figure 13 | Hyundai Genesis G90 Car with Driver Assist Technology |
Figure 14 | Nissan Leaf (2016 model) |
Figure 15 | Nissan’s IDS Concept Car (Top/Middle) and First Autonomous Drive Car Model (Bottom) |
Figure 16 | Toyota's Safety Sense Equipment |
Figure 17 | Volvo Concept 26 |
Figure 18 | Audi Q7 |
Figure 19 | Delphi's Adapted Audi SQ5 |
Figure 20 | Examples of some of Nvidia’s other diversification efforts |
Figure 21 | Nvidia Drive CX and Drive PX |
Figure 22 | Illustration of Nvidia Drive PX Strategy for Commercialising Autonomous Car Technology |
Figure 23 | Nvidia Drive PX2 (top) and Drive PX2 (bottom) – Autonomous Driving Processor Units |
Figure 24 | Growth of Nvidia’s Automotive Business Division |
Figure 25 | Google Self-Driving Car Prototype |
Figure 26 | Google Self-driving Car Technology – Digital representations of local environments (see here) |
Figure 27 | Tesla Model S Car (Top) and Autopilot Control Screen |
Figure 28 | Uber's Adapted Ford Research Car |
Figure 29 | Autonomous Driving Technologies In Prototype Use In 2014 |
Figure 30 | The Autonomous Car of the Future |
Figure 31 | Lutz Pod Due For Pathway Testing |
Executive Summary 6
A compelling value proposition 7
The technology is doable 9
Industry incumbents are on board 12
Market barriers 14
Cost: Will self-driving cars be affordable? 15
Driver trust: Will ordinary users be prepared to relinquish control and trust a machine? 16
Resistance from established industries: will protests by workers’ unions and corporate inertia act to slow down or limit the market’s potential? 18
Regulation: Will regulators decide to put the brakes on? 20
Caution: In spite of the euphoria, the market will take longer to develop than many believe 22
What’s Available Today: Driver-assisted Car Technology 24
Capability Roadmap 24
Adaptive Cruise Control 28
Parking Assist 28
Blind Spot Assist 29
Emergency Braking 30
Night Vision 30
Fatigue Detection 31
Lane Change Assist 31
Autosteer 32
Lane Keeping Assist 32
Traffic Jam Assist 32
Traffic Sign Assist 33
Automated Highway Driving Assistant 33
Incumbent Players: Leading Auto Manufacturers 34
BMW Group (Germany)34
Daimler (Germany)37
Ford (U.S.)41
General Motors (U.S.)43
HERE (Germay)45
Honda (Japan)46
Hyundai (South Korea)50
Nissan (Japan)52
Toyota (Japan)55
Volvo (Sweden)57
Volkswagen (Germany)60
New Entrants: Technology Companies 64
Delphi (U.S.)64
Nvidia (U.S.)66
Google (U.S.)73
Technology 74
Manufacturing 75
Apple (U.S.)77
Tesla (U.S.)78
Baidu (China)80
Uber (U.S.)81
Alibaba / SAIC Motor (China)82
What’s Next: Roadmap for Self-driving Vehicle Technology 84
Automated Technologies Expected By 2020 85
Automated Valet Parking and Retrieval86
Smart Navigation 87
Machine Learning / Artificial Intelligence 88
Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication (V2V)89
Integration with Other Digital Services 89
Key Dates 90
Market Analysis: Benefits and Barriers 91
Benefits 91
Improved Safety 91
Lower Insurance Premiums 91
Time Saving 92
Lower Running Costs 93
Optimum Usage of Road Network 95
Barriers 95
Regulation and Legislation 95
U.S.95
Europe 95
U.K.96
Other Regions 98
Resistance From Existing Industries 99
Cost100
Consumer Acceptability 102
About the Authors 105
Sara Foster 105
Andrew Sheehy 105
Title: | Driverless and Driver-assisted Cars |
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Pages: | 105 |
Updated: | 05 Feb 2016 |
License: | Single User |
Format: | |
Delivery: | Email and Online. |
Price: | £249 |