Driverless and Driver-assisted Cars

From low-profile testing on deserted airfields to mass deployment

The mass deployment of driverless cars will transform the worldwide automotive industry on a staggering scale. A 80-90% reduction in the cost of accident-related deaths, injuries and vehicle damage will decimate the $460 billion personal car insurance market while the automotive spare parts and car repairs markets will experience major contraction. A slow but sure move away from the concept of car ownership towards a model that involves paying for transport services will mean that annual cars sales will fall. This will not just affect the leading auto makers, who will experience of period of consolidation and M&A activity, but related industries will be affected as well - such as companies who provide finance for new car purchases.

We estimate that the total economic impact of driverless car technology in the long term will be in the multi-trillion dollar class – and, once again, the cause will be digital technology.

The specific catalysts of this staggering upheaval will be (i) the maturation of machine intelligence  - which will  control cars both individually and collectively; (ii) the assembly of extensive data assets - mapping data and data harvested from sensors mounted in cars and elsewhere; (iii) the formation of connections between driverless car systems and other digital domains – for example smart homes, personal devices, entertainment services and advertising.

There are four powerful reasons why we are sure that massive change is coming: firstly, driverless cars will deliver major, incremental value benefits to practically all drivers and passengers; secondly - based on where the technology is today, its rate of improvement and its ultimate potential - it is clear that the mass adoption of driverless cars will be possible with minimal incremental cost; thirdly, rather than feelings of suspicion and mistrust the reaction of most consumers to cars that can drive themselves is one of amazement and fascination. And finally – sensing that this really is going to happen – practically every major auto maker, plus a raft of new entrants, are locked in ‘execution’ mode.

This report will take you on a guided tour of the driverless car and driver-assisted car markets. The report explains what all the major actors are doing and where they are headed while also presenting a detailed description of what the future will look like when the thought of driving a car to work will seem as strange as the thought of lighting a fire in order to cook a meal.

Alibaba / SAIC Motor (China) 
Apple (U.S.) 
Baidu (China) 
BMW Group (Germany)
Daimler (Germany)
Delphi (U.S.)
Ford (U.S.)
General Motors (U.S.)
Google (U.S.) 
HERE (Germay)
Honda (Japan)
Hyundai (South Korea)
Nissan (Japan)
Nvidia (U.S.)
Tesla (U.S.) 
Toyota (Japan)
Uber (U.S.) 
Volkswagen (Germany) 
Volvo (Sweden)
Figure 1 Modified ‘fully autonomous’ Audi RS 7 at Hockenheim (full race speed)
Figure 2 Stanford's self-driving, electric, drifting DeLorean
Figure 3 Levels of Vehicle Automation
Figure 4 Mercedes-Benz Self-driving Car Technology – fully self-driving (supervised) drive on a 6-mile route from Mannheim to Pforzheim in Germany including town centres.
Figure 5 Examples of Automotive Night Vision Technology – 2010 to 2015
Figure 6 BMW i3 Electric Car with Remote Parking Assist
Figure 7 Mercedes F015 Concept Car
Figure 8 Ford Fusion Hybrid Autonomous Research Vehicle
Figure 9 The Chevrolet-FNR Concept Car
Figure 10 HERE Digital Mapping Showing Road Lanes and Contours
Figure 11 Honda Pedestrian Sensing Technology (Top) and Lane Keeping System
Figure 12 Honda's Autonomous Vehicle Testing (Top) and the Honda Wander Concept Model
Figure 13 Hyundai Genesis G90 Car with Driver Assist Technology
Figure 14 Nissan Leaf (2016 model)
Figure 15 Nissan’s IDS Concept Car (Top/Middle) and First Autonomous Drive Car Model (Bottom)
Figure 16 Toyota's Safety Sense Equipment
Figure 17 Volvo Concept 26
Figure 18 Audi Q7
Figure 19 Delphi's Adapted Audi SQ5
Figure 20 Examples of some of Nvidia’s other diversification efforts
Figure 21 Nvidia Drive CX and Drive PX
Figure 22 Illustration of Nvidia Drive PX Strategy for Commercialising Autonomous Car Technology
Figure 23 Nvidia Drive PX2 (top) and Drive PX2 (bottom) – Autonomous Driving Processor Units
Figure 24 Growth of Nvidia’s Automotive Business Division
Figure 25 Google Self-Driving Car Prototype
Figure 26 Google Self-driving Car Technology – Digital representations of local environments (see here)
Figure 27 Tesla Model S Car (Top) and Autopilot Control Screen
Figure 28 Uber's Adapted Ford Research Car
Figure 29 Autonomous Driving Technologies In Prototype Use In 2014
Figure 30 The Autonomous Car of the Future
Figure 31 Lutz Pod Due For Pathway Testing

 Executive Summary   6

A compelling value proposition   7

The technology is doable  9

Industry incumbents are on board   12

Market barriers  14

Cost: Will self-driving cars be affordable?  15

Driver trust: Will ordinary users be prepared to relinquish control and trust a machine?  16

Resistance from established industries: will protests by workers’ unions and corporate inertia act to slow down or limit the market’s potential?  18

Regulation: Will regulators decide to put the brakes on?  20

Caution:  In spite of the euphoria, the market will take longer to develop than many believe  22

What’s Available Today: Driver-assisted Car Technology   24

Capability Roadmap  24

Adaptive Cruise Control  28

Parking Assist  28

Blind Spot Assist  29

Emergency Braking   30

Night Vision   30

Fatigue Detection   31

Lane Change Assist  31

Autosteer  32

Lane Keeping Assist  32

Traffic Jam Assist  32

Traffic Sign Assist  33

Automated Highway Driving Assistant  33

Incumbent Players: Leading Auto Manufacturers  34

BMW Group (Germany)34

Daimler (Germany)37

Ford (U.S.)41

General Motors (U.S.)43

HERE (Germay)45

Honda (Japan)46

Hyundai (South Korea)50

Nissan (Japan)52

Toyota (Japan)55

Volvo (Sweden)57

Volkswagen (Germany)60

New Entrants: Technology Companies  64

Delphi (U.S.)64

Nvidia (U.S.)66

Google (U.S.)73

Technology  74

Manufacturing  75

Apple (U.S.)77

Tesla (U.S.)78

Baidu (China)80

Uber (U.S.)81

Alibaba / SAIC Motor (China)82

What’s Next: Roadmap for Self-driving Vehicle Technology   84

Automated Technologies Expected By 2020  85

Automated Valet Parking and Retrieval86

Smart Navigation  87

Machine Learning / Artificial Intelligence  88

Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication (V2V)89

Integration with Other Digital Services  89

Key Dates  90

Market Analysis: Benefits and Barriers  91

Benefits  91

Improved Safety  91

Lower Insurance Premiums  91

Time Saving  92

Lower Running Costs  93

Optimum Usage of Road Network  95

Barriers  95

Regulation and Legislation  95

U.S.95

Europe  95

U.K.96

Other Regions  98

Resistance From Existing Industries  99

Cost100

Consumer Acceptability  102

About the Authors  105

Sara Foster  105

Andrew Sheehy   105

 

Report Highlights




  • Comprehensive analysis
  • All the leading auto makers
  • Google, Tesla, Apple and Nvidia
  • Impact on incumbent industries
  • 105 pages
  • Current capabilities

Ordering Information

Title: Driverless and Driver-assisted Cars
Pages: 105
Updated: 05 Feb 2016
License: Single User
Format: PDF
Delivery: Email and Online.
Price: £249
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